Last week we went 6-4 running our season record to a dead even 60-60. (I gave out Tennessee to cover against UAB on “Lock It In” in addition to the nine picks here).
But we lost the blood bank guarantee by a half point in the Florida-Georgia game, which was a brutal way to start off November.
I’m headed down to Tuscaloosa this weekend to watch LSU-Bama in person so hopefully that will bring some good luck to this week’s gambling picks.
In the meantime, despite the mediocrity of the picks as we enter November, all is not lost because you can win $10k of my money this week by playing the free college football pick’em. I hope you all lose, but you can go make your picks here.
This will be the third year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks — or hate me and want to fade everything that I do — I post my picks Monday afternoon on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. This year’s new VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the TV show(s), which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
We’ve got ten picks for you this week and there has been a ton of movement so far this week in the gambling lines.
Here we go with 10-0:
Clemson at N.C. State +31, now NC State +32
I made this bet before Clemson came in at number five overall and now I feel like NC State may be set up to take a drubbing so Clemson can prove they deserve to be in the top four.
But, honestly, this feels like the perfect time to buy NC State stock.
They just lost to Wake Forest by 34 points and Clemson has been on a roll the past couple of weeks, completely destroying the opposition.
Well over 90% of the money has to be on Clemson here.
Which means this feels like the kind of game where NC State is competitive early and ends up losing by 24 or so.
Which is exactly what I expect to see here.
Take the Wolfpack and the points.
Maryland at Ohio State -42, now Ohio State -43.5
Last weekend Maryland was whipped at home by Michigan and this week Maryland has to go on the road to face the new number one team in the country.
The Terps have now lost six of their past seven games, with the only win coming against Rutgers. Maryland has lost by 59 to Penn State, 26 to Purdue, 42 to Minnesota and 31 to Michigan in the past several weeks.
Things aren’t getting better for them in Columbus.
The Buckeyes by fifty.
Illinois +13.5 at Michigan State, now Illinois +14.5
I’m going to be honest with y’all, this line completely baffles me.
Especially the fact that money has been coming in on Michigan State.
Since October began Michigan State has scored 17 total points. Yet now they are suddenly favored by over two touchdowns against Illinois, a team that has won three straight games, the latter two games by a combined 62-16 score?
I don’t just think Illinois covers here, I think they have a good chance they win outright.
Call me crazy, but hop on the Illini here.
Penn State -6.5 at Minnesota, now Penn State -6.5
The last time Minnesota was 8-0?
Back in 1941, before Pearl Harbor.
Ultimately this game comes down to the question of which side has been better tested. And the answer is Penn State. The Nittany Lions have gone on the road and won at Iowa and Michigan State and they’ve taken down Michigan. I also love the fact that they had a bye to get ready for this game. (I know Minnesota had a bye too and that they spent it signing PJ Fleck to stay with Minnesota until 2026).
Let’s look at Minnesota’s wins so far this year in the Big Ten: Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland. Not one of these teams has a winning record.
In fact, aside from Northwestern, Minnesota has beaten the five worst teams in the Big Ten so far.
The Nittany Lions go on the road and win this game by double digits.
Baylor at TCU pick’em, Baylor -2
Matt Rhule has been the best coach in the country not named PJ Fleck so far in 2019.
But all good things eventually come to an end.
And that happens this weekend at TCU where Gary Patterson’s squad will do to Baylor what they did to Texas, pull off a big home upset.
Take the Horned Frogs to win outright.
Purdue -1.5 at Northwestern, now Northwestern -2
Last week I told you Indiana was going to crush Northwestern and then what happened? Indiana crushed Northwestern.
The Wildcats lost 34-3 to Indiana.
Meaning Northwestern has now scored 7, 10, 15, 10, 3, 0, and 3 in their seven games against big five conference opponents so far this year.
That’s an average of 5.4 points per game.
The line has moved over a field goal so far in Northwestern’s favor, but I don’t think that matters, Purdue wins outright because they, unlike Northwestern, can actually score double digit points.
LSU +6.5 at Bama, now LSU +6.5
How often has Nick Saban been able to play the disrespect card for his team in the past decade?
I’ll admit, that scares me.
Plus, the Tide are number three in the college football rankings, meaning Saban is going to convince his team the entire nation expects for LSU, the higher ranked team, to win.
But here’s the problem: I kind of expect LSU to win this game too.
Just like last week when I also bet the 6.5 point underdog in the Florida-Georgia game because I thought the teams were too close for the line to be that high, I’m hopping in here again with the exact same opinion.
I don’t understand how you can take Bama here and expect them to win by a touchdown or more.
I hope I’m right this week unlike last week.
The Tide wins by three, but LSU covers.
(FYI, I’m taking my nine year old, the Bama fan, to this game. I still can’t believe I’ve sired a Bama fan and that he’s going to be wearing a Tide jersey in their stadium on Saturday. God has a sense of humor, indeed.)
Vols +2.5 at Kentucky and the under 43.5, now Vols -1 and the under 42
Put simply, the wrong team was favored here when this line initially came out.
I took the Vols at +3 on Lock It In on Monday and the line moved all the way from opening at Kentucky +4 to Tennessee -1 by late Monday night.
This is a major line move across all sorts of key numbers.
Will it hold as the big money wagers start to come in?
I don’t know.
But I do know this, the Vols are my blood bank guarantee this week and they are winning outright in Lexington.
Tap the vein and get rich, kids!
I also love the under here as I don’t think any team will have pronounced offensive success. It feels like a 17-14 type game.
Iowa at Wisconsin the under 38.5, now under 38
Here are the total scores in Iowa’s Big Ten games so far this season: 30, 13, 29, 46, and 20.
Catching a theme here?
Meanwhile every Wisconsin Big Ten game has gone under 47.
So what happens when these two teams play?
Someone wins 10-7.
Who cares, you’ll have the under!
There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 10-0 this week, hop on the cover train and let’s have some fun.
Hope to see some of you in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.