We went 7-7 last week, 5-6 on the Outkick picks and then 2-1 on picks I gave out on Lock It In and on the William Hill College Football Gambling Contest I’ve entered in Las Vegas. (I had the over in UCF-FAU, which was a rough beat because they stopped the game with 4:25 left in the fourth quarter and us just needing one touchdown to hit the over, and then covered with Penn State vs. Buffalo and Army at Michigan. You can see my weekly William Hill gambling picks here. I will also Tweet them out as well as these picks have to be turned in by Friday afternoon.)
On the positive side we hit the blood bank guarantee for the third straight week with Texas A&M’s late cover over Clemson. So I hope you guys have jumped on the blood bank game so far this year.
The most crushing beat of the week was Tennessee’s late collapse against BYU, which turned a push into a loss thanks to the Vols inability to cover a deep pass with thirty seconds to go in the game.
Our season record after two weeks is now 21-14, which is good for a 60% winning percentage.
How do we improve on that?
By going 12-0 this week, baby!
This will be the third year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks — or hate me and want to fade everything that I do — I post my picks Monday afternoon on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. This year’s new VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the TV show(s), which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
This week I’ve got 12 picks for you so here comes 12-0:
Washington State at Houston, over 75, now over 74
What happens when two old, good friend air raid offensive gurus get a chance to go head-to-head for the first time in a long while?
This is a Friday night kickoff game that will go over eighty easy. We’re talking points, points, and more points. Just pop open a cold beer, kick your feet up and enjoy the fireworks.
By midnight on Saturday you’ll be 1-0 on the week.
Ohio State at Indiana +15.5, now Indiana +16.5
I know we got burned last week buying into Cincinnati’s defense, but I’m still not sold on the Buckeyes.
I don’t think Indiana will beat Ohio State, but no one does a better job of making you think they might pull of an upset on their home field than Indiana. Sorry, Hoosier fans, but you know this is true. You’re always Charlie Brown running up to kick the football against Michigan or Ohio State until it gets pulled away from you at the last possible second.
The Hoosiers won’t win, but they’ll keep it within 16 and get you a cover here.
Kansas State at Mississippi State, under 48, now under 52.5
This line has moved up in a big way suggesting that points will be raining down in abundance. But I’m just not buying it.
So far Mississippi State’s defense has carried Joe Moorhead’s offense.
In fact, the Bulldog defense hasn’t allowed thirty or more points in what feels like a century.
I don’t think that changes in this game. Kansas State’s offense comes to a screeching halt and the Bulldogs get an ugly 24-14 win.
Meaning the under hits with ease.
Pittsburgh at Penn State -16.5, now -17
These two teams — and their coaching staffs — hate each other.
Back in 2016 Pittsburgh beat Penn State 42-39. But last year Penn State walloped Pitt 51-6 on the road and this year’s game is in Happy Valley.
Expect more of the same this year as Pitt doesn’t have much offense and the Nittany Lions look to continue to pour it on as they head towards Big Ten play.
Penn State covers, bigly.
FAU at Ball State, over 67, now over 65
It’s time for Lane Kiffin’s offense to start scoring some real points and if they can’t do it against Ball State, who can they do it against?
Ball State is coming off a 59 point effort.
Sure, it was against Fordham, but I think the points continue to rain down in this game as well.
Hop on the Lane Kiffin over train and enjoy the ride.
Stanford at Central Florida -7, now UCF -7.5
Last week with their back up quarterback Stanford got out to a 17-3 lead against USC and then fell apart, eventually getting blown out on the road in LA.
Now they have to travel all the way across the country and play a game in steamy Orlando against a team that has continued to score tons of points no matter who their coach is. Even if Stanford’s starting quarterback, KJ Costello, is back, I still think UCF gets a double digit win.
Especially because this is one of the few times all year UCF will get the opportunity to make their case in front of a national TV audience.
Alabama -25.5 at South Carolina, now Bama -25.5
Guess what, Gamecocks, Stephen Garcia ain’t walking through that door!
South Carolina is starting a brand new quarterback in his first ever SEC game.
Do you know the last time a new quarterback beat Nick Saban starting his first ever SEC game in the process?
The answer is…that’s never happened.
And it ain’t starting now either.
Bama will slowly strangle the life out of the South Carolina offense and methodically dominate on both offense and defense.
This feels like a 49-13 Tide win that’s never in remote doubt.
Meaning you get the easy cover and can enjoy your first CBS afternoon game of the year without a bit of stress.
USC at BYU, the under 55.5, now under 55.5
Yes, yes, I know, BYU is still flying sky high over their breaking of the state of Tennessee’s hearts thanks to the Vol collapse late in Neyland Stadium.
I also know that USC has a new superstar quarterback to debut on the road — Kedon Slovis was phenomenal against Stanford — but so far both BYU games have been ugly, plodding affairs.
The Holy War against Utah finished with a 30-12 score and even with a double overtime factored in BYU-Tennessee only went for 55 points. (It should have ended 16-13 Vols if Tennessee had been able to play any defense at all).
I think there’s more of the same coming against USC, with both teams struggling to get to 24 points.
Call it 24-21 USC, with the under hitting with ease.
Iowa at Iowa State, the under 44, now under 44.5
With the Iowa presidential caucus five months away and the biggest crowd in the state of Iowa headed to this in-state rivalry, the most enticing part of this battle might be betting on which Democratic presidential candidate will send the most awkward Tweet trying to appeal to state residents who are fans of both teams.
(I make Elizabeth Warren a -150 awkward Tweet favorite followed by Kamala Harris at +180 and Beto at +220.)
But the biggest story here, I believe, will be the Iowa defense, which has dominated so far this year, allowing a total of 14 points. Meanwhile Iowa State hasn’t played since narrowly escaping Northern Iowa in week one.
What happens here?
Hardly any points are scored and we see another low scoring contest reminiscent of last year’s 13-3 game.
Call it Iowa 21-17.
Boom, the under hits with ease again.
Florida at Kentucky, the under 50, now under 50.5
Tap the veins, boys and girls, it’s our blood bank guarantee of the week — Florida is headed to Kentucky and the point total will be insanely low.
Kentucky just lost their starting quarterback for the year and I have zero confidence in Florida’s Feleipe Franks to either spell his first name correctly or go on the road and lead a strong offensive attack.
So what happens?
A defensive battle.
The Gators get revenge for last year’s defeat with a 24-14 win in Lexington and the blood bank guarantee steams ahead to 4-0 on the season.
Clemson -27.5 at Syracuse, now Clemson -28
Last year Syracuse should have beaten Clemson and the year before that they did beat Clemson. So what happens in this game with Clemson as a four touchdown favorite?
I think Clemson goes medieval on that Syracuse ass to avenge the past two years of poor performances against the Orange.
Plus, I think Dino Babers team just isn’t very good this year.
The result? Clemson by thirty or more.
Oklahoma -22 at UCLA, now OU -23
Last year Oklahoma beat UCLA 49-21 in Norman.
This year’s game is in the Rose Bowl, but Oklahoma fans are traveling out to California to take over the football stadium and play a virtual home game in Pasadena.
UCLA can’t score, even against mediocre defenses. Meanwhile Jalen Hurts, Lincoln Riley, and Oklahoma can score against anyone.
This game won’t be close, the Sooners roll by four touchdowns.
There you have it, boys and girls, #respectthepicks and let’s go 12-0 this week.