Ever since Tennessee allowed BYU to score at the end of their game three weeks ago we’ve been cursed when it comes to close game losses with the Outkick picks.
Last week we lost bets by a half point, a point, a touchdown with five seconds left after a length of the field drive with thirty seconds left, & because UCF gave up 21 unanswered points after going up 56-0.
A 4-6 week when if you watched and bet the games we could have — and maybe should have been — at worst 6-3 with a push in the Bama game. (Although if Bama doesn’t drop the fourth down conversion catch we push at worst in that game too.)
We have to start getting some of these close breaks in the second half of the season, but right now we are sitting at a mediocre 36-33 on the season.
The positive here, this total adds up to 69, which I’m taking as a very good omen.
(Sidenote part one: 11 year old asked my wife why people in YouTube videos kept saying 69 was a good number. She said he needed to wait a couple of years to know the answer to that question.
Sidenote part two: I hope you took my advice and bought some The Stars Group stock along with other sports gambling stocks I recommended. This morning there was a big sports gambling merger announced and TSG is up big even in a down market.
Wow, big news in sports gambling industry. Parent company of Fan Duel is acquiring parent company of FoxBet. Damn good morning if you bought TSG stock! We going to Sizzler! pic.twitter.com/qK2yoEcNEm
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) October 2, 2019
Sidenote part three: I’m going to be in Knoxville for the Georgia-Tennessee game so if you’re a VIP member we’re going to try and set something up on Friday night to let people who are in town swing by and grab drinks on me and say hi. So far we’ve done VIP events in Nashville, New York, Atlanta, Washington D.C., on the 30A Beaches, LA, Houston, Chicago, and St. Louis. I’ve had a good time meeting you guys at these and I look forward to doing more of them in the near future. We’ll have one in Miami during the Super Bowl as well. Make sure you check the VIP message board to see the details on where these events will be. Between giving away books and shirts to VIPs and the drink bills at these VIP events, you can easily break even on your VIP memberships just based on attending these.)
This will be the third year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks — or hate me and want to fade everything that I do — I post my picks Monday afternoon on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. This year’s new VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the TV show(s), which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Here we go with 11-0:
UCF -4 at Cincy and the over 60, now UCF -4 and the over 60
Last week UCF killed us by failing to cover despite getting up 56-0 on UConn. (Randy Edsell’s insistence on playing his starters for this entire game was absurd. Made even more absurd when news broke about his starting quarterback breaking his clavicle in the first quarter and still finishing the game. That quarterback, a true warrior indeed, is now out for the year).
But back to UCF, Cincinnati has played well all season except for their game at Ohio State.
What’s more, they’ve been on a real scoring kick of late, posting 35 points against Miami of Ohio and 52 against Marshall.
UCF’s offense is great, but their defense is suspect.
So what happens on Friday night?
UCF wins a shootout 45-38.
That means you hit the over and you get a nice UCF cover to start the weekend off and make up for the disastrous ending against UConn.
Purdue at Penn State -27.5, now -28
Purdue is overrun with injuries and Penn State is surging right now.
I know this is a big number for a conference game, but it has started to tick out to 28 at many shops based on the Purdue injuries and I anticipate it will stick right around this number until kickoff.
What’s more, few coaches cover at a higher rate than James Franklin.
Plus, I love the way this young Penn State offense is taking off as we hit the midway point of the season.
That surge continues on Saturday in Happy Valley.
Take the Nittany Lions, big.
Troy at Mizzou -24, now Mizzou -25
Provocative opinion: Missouri is the second best team in the SEC East and has the best chance to beat Georgia of any SEC East team. But as a result of Mizzou’s season opening loss on the road at Wyoming most haven’t realized exactly how impressive this team has been since then, notching big wins over West Virginia and South Carolina.
Mizzou’s run continues on Saturday against an overmatched Troy team.
Troy’s defense gave up 50 to Arkansas State and 47 to Southern Miss.
That means Mizzou’s poised to hang 50+ on Troy and I feel good about them holding Troy to 21 or less.
Simple math tells me, that’s an easy cover.
Washington -16 at Stanford, now Washington -16.5
The Stanford season is rapidly unraveling and Washington is surging.
Plus, this is just a bad match-up for Stanford, which has struggled with handling athletic teams with playmakers.
USC won by 25, UCF by 18, and Oregon by 15.
There’s more of the same coming for Stanford on Saturday when Washington notches a win by 17+.
Good doggie, go Huskies.
Iowa-Michigan the under 47.5, now 47
Here are the point totals Iowa has given up in their first four games: 14, 0, 17, and 3 (That last number cost us the over. I really thought MTSU would be good for at least a touchdown at Iowa, I was wrong).
This Hawkeye defense is stout and won’t buckle against a pedestrian Michigan offensive attack.
For Michigan this is a must win game for Jim Harbaugh and I don’t believe he trusts his offense. So what happens? Harbaugh’s going to revert to a very conservative offensive game plan.
Meanwhile, Iowa’s offensive gameplans have been conservative since the Truman administration.
A game played mostly in the teens.
Final score, the winner 20, the loser 17.
But, guess what, who wins won’t even matter to you, because you’ll have won the under by ten points.
Georgia at Tennessee +25 (now +25)
As I mentioned above I’m traveling up to Knoxville for this game with a couple of buddies.
You might be wondering to yourself, why are you going to this Tennessee game? And the answer is, because I’m a glutton for punishment. (Also, because this was one of the few weekends where we could all get away.)
I’ll post the VIP meet up location on the message board for Friday night, but I do think things have gotten out of control in believing how bad this Tennessee team is.
Are the Vols not very good?
But are they 25 points worse than Georgia?
That seems really steep, especially since Georgia is 3-9-1 in their last 13 ATS vs. Tennessee.
Yes, Kirby Smart has won big against the Vols the past two years, but last year’s game was somewhat competitive into the fourth quarter down in Athens.
Plus, Tennessee now has Georgia’s offensive coordinator from last year in Jim Chaney so you’d think he has to know this Georgia defense better than anyone, right? That has to be worth a few points, even with Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback.
I think Georgia wins on Saturday, but by around 17 instead of 25.
(By the way, Tennessee has been pretty awful against Florida and Alabama in the SEC, but against Georgia they have at least been respectful, going 6-9 in the past 15 games. I don’t think Georgia instills the same level of pee in your pants fear for the Vols as Bama and Florida do. That’s especially the case when the Vols are 2-2 against Georgia in the past four years.)
Oklahoma -33 at Kansas (now -32)
I don’t want to say I’m to the point where I just blindly bet on the Sooners and Oklahoma’s offense to cover against anyone in the Big 12.
But I’m to the point where I just blindly bet on the Sooners and Oklahoma’s offense to cover against anyone in the Big 12.
They should rename the Heisman the Lincoln Riley.
Auburn -3 at Florida and the under 47, now -3 and 48
Tap the veins, boys and girls, it’s time for the blood bank guarantee — I love Auburn -3 here and the under in this game.
Yes, it’s a first of the season double blood bank guarantee!
This Auburn team reminds me of both Gus Malzahn offenses in 2010 and 2013, the two Tiger teams who played for the national championship.
If you watched those teams play you know that Auburn was a shadow of the offensive team they’d become in late November early in the year.
Both Cam Newton and Nick Marshall got better each week until the offense hit a full roar in early November. I’m seeing the same signs with Bo Nix this year.
As if that weren’t enough, I like this Auburn defense better than I did the 2010 and 2013 Auburn defenses.
While the environment will be wild down in the Swamp, I believe Auburn’s defense will be able to handle Kyle Trask. (In fact, I think this is the kind of game where Florida will actually miss Franks’s ability to extend plays and gobble up first downs in short yardage and touchdowns in goal line situations.)
Neither team has abundant offensive success, but I like the Tigers 24-13 over the Gators.
And when that happens the double blood bank guarantee will cash!
Michigan State +20 at Ohio State
Could I be an idiot for betting against Ohio State to cover after four straight dominant wins and easy covers?
Of course I could.
But do I also think if Mark Dantonio has any coaching juice left at all he has to bring his Spartans into Columbus and keep them within twenty points?
So this is a bet on Mark Dantonio and the Spartans to keep it at least remotely close this weekend.
If I’m wrong, don’t worry, Buckeye fans, I full expect you to deluge my mentions telling me I’m an idiot. (So, basically, treat me like you always do).
There you have it, 11-0 is coming!
Get rich, kids!
And I hope to see some of you guys (and girls) in Knoxville this weekend for our VIP event.