The good ship Outkick has grounded over the past three weeks. It’s been a combinations of bad bets and bad beats that have driven us back nearly to even ground. (Seriously that Florida touchdown on 4th down to cover and crush the blood bank guarantee with one minute left after the coaches had told the Gator players to take a knee is going to haunt me for some time to come).
We are now 31-30 on the season, just a bit above .500.
But this is the time when we go 10-0 to just kick the doubters right squarely in the teeth and twirl our dicks around like helicopters come late Saturday night.
Respect the picks, #dbap, #shootersshoot
10-0, baby, here we come!
Two tidbits of news here before I give you the picks that we’re going 10-0 with, I am doing a live Outkick show tomorrow night at Zanies at 7:30 eastern. Tickets are almost sold out so I don’t think you’ll be able to buy them at the door. It seats right at 300 and Outkick VIP get in free IF THEY SIGN UP ON THE OUTKICK MESSAGE BOARD BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. So right now you can get a free shirt and a free ticket to a Thursday night event for $99 if you sign up for the Outkick VIP.
Also, we are doing an Outkick VIP event in St. Louis on Friday and an Outkick VIP event on Monday in Birmingham. Only Outkick VIPs are invited to these events and I will post the details on the VIP message board. So stop being a pussy and go sign up for Outkick VIP.
Plus, you know the picks are going to get hot again and while the games haven’t been breaking our way the numbers definitely have. I post these picks on Sunday for the lines and Monday for the over/unders exclusively in the VIP.
Penn State at Northwestern +14 (Now Northwestern +14.5)
Pat Fitzgerald has had Jame Franklin’s number for whatever reason. Fitzgerald and Franklin have gone head-to-head three times and Fitzgerald is 3-0, beating Franklin once at Vandy and twice at Penn State. I have watched all three of these games.
I don’t claim to understand exactly why that is, but I do know that it’s a legitimate event at this point.
Which is why when I saw Penn State open as a two touchdown road favorite, I hopped on Northwestern and the points.
I don’t think the Nittany Lions lose, but I do think we have another Iowa-like tight road game that Penn State wins late.
Meaning you cover with ease.
Maryland +31 at Ohio State (Now Maryland +30.5)
D.J. Durkin might be the most underrated coach in college football right now. He has taken his team on the road at Texas and won as a double digit underdog and he has taken his team on the road at Minnesota and won as a double digit underdog.
Now his Terrapins are a 31 point underdog on the road at Ohio State.
I know the Buckeyes burned us last week with an easy win over Rutgers, but I look at this line and it just seems way too high given what Durkin has accomplished already at Maryland so far.
So give me the Terrapins as a big underdog on the road at Ohio State.
Arkansas at South Carolina under 51 (Now 49)
Will Muschamp’s team isn’t very good, but Muschamp has proven adept at controlling the pace of the games his teams play.
The last four South Carolina games have posted totals of 44, 36, 33, and 41.
Now Arkansas is coming to town and I just don’t think this Bret Bielema offense is capable of kicking this game into high gear at South Carolina. Plus I think Muschamp knows his team is unlikely to win a game where 28 or more points are needed. (N.C. State isn’t happening again).
So I see this one coming down to a 24-21 type contest, which means you hit the under with ease.
The only thing I’m nervous about here, honestly, is the potential for overtime, which blows up our under because I expect this game to be close throughout.
So consider hedging at the half when the score is 10-7.
Washington State -1 at Oregon (Now Washington State -2.5)
This has been a fascinating line, it opened even, moved to Oregon favored by a couple of points and now has swung all the way back to Washington State by just under a field goal. Oregon’s starting quarterback is out and Mike Leach’s squad is rolling.
Which means I think this line is actually too low.
I understand the possibility of a let down effect after the big win over USC, but I just don’t see it happening here given how well this Washington State offense is playing.
So give me Leach and the boys to win by a touchdown or more.
Georgia -14 at Vanderbilt, the over 41.5 (Now Georgia -17.5, 40.5)
Break out the blood bank boys, because we’ve got two blood bank guarantees this week, I’ve got Georgia covering at Vanderbilt and Florida covering against LSU.
Put simply, I just don’t see how Vandy’s going to score more than ten against this Georgia defense. (So far Mississippi State and Tennessee combined to score 3).
Meanwhile I think the Bulldogs put up 35 or more on Vandy.
Keep in mind Vandy has now played three straight incredibly physical football teams — Kansas State, Alabama, and Florida. The Commodores are worn down and I don’t expect them to play well in the final leg of this four game stretch.
I do, however, think the number has gotten too low here because I think the Bulldogs will go up and down the field at will in the running game.
So give me Georgia covering as the blood bank and give me the over too.
LSU at Florida -3, the under 47 (Now Florida -3, 45.5)
Yep, you got it, a special double dose of the blood bank coming this week, boys and girls, the Gators are going to beat LSU by double digits.
It’s a DOUBLE BLOOD BANK GUARANTEE WEEKEND.
LSU is not good.
And they’re traveling on the road to take on Jim McElwain, who is now the new Les Miles, and somehow wins every game even when he doesn’t deserve to do so.
I’m not kidding about this, I think LSU may finish the season 2-6 in the SEC. They’re not beating Auburn and Alabama and I think they lose this week at Florida. Having already lost by 30 at Mississippi State that means they’d have four games left in the SEC: at Ole Miss, Arkansas, at Tennessee, and Texas A&M. Best case scenario I think they split those four.
But things could be worse, LSU fans.
At least you didn’t give Ed Orgeron a $12 million buyout.
Ole Miss at Auburn -21 (Now Auburn -21.5)
I told you last week that this year’s Auburn team was starting to remind me of the 2010 and 2013 Auburn offenses. Both those offenses weren’t very good in September and slowly worked their way into juggernauts by November.
I think the same thing is true of Auburn this year.
Ole Miss is coming off a 66-3 trouncing at Alabama and I don’t think things are going to get much better at Jordan-Hare.
Auburn wins by thirty, meaning you cover by over a touchdown.
Alabama -22 at Texas A&M (Now Alabama -26.5)
I told you in the wake of Alabama’s 59-0 win over Vanderbilt that I’d be betting on the Tide every week for the rest of the season.
I did it last week for an easy cover over Ole Miss
And here we are once more, as the lines continue to climb, even on the road.
Bama has won its past two SEC games by a combined score of 125-3.
Ordinarily that would make you nervous because you’d expect a letdown.
But this team is made up of football robots. And those robots are going to seek and destroy all Aggie hopes of victory. Take Bama, big.